After the Conventions: Who Will Win the 2012 Presidential Election, Obama or Romney?

Now that the Democratic and Republican delegates have officially chosen their nominees, Patch wants to know: Who are you betting on?

It's official: With President Barack Obama's acceptance speech in Charlotte Thursday night, both the Republicans and Democrats have formally chosen their nominees for the 2012 presidential election. Let the real race begin.

A lot can change between now and Nov. 6: Gaffes, scandals or even major international news events could shift the dynamics of the campaign.

The latest Gallup Polls show registered votersĀ preferring Obama to Mitt Romney by just one percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. A USA Today/Gallup poll taken just before the party conventions found American voters think Obama is more likeable, but trust Romney more to handle the economy.

Pundits have been busy for months handicapping the major-party candidates on various factors: incumbent advantage, fundraising clout, even religion.

Patch wants to know: Regardless of who you support for President, who do you think will actually claim victory in November?

Vote in our poll below, and let us know your reasoning in the comments.

Postman Sharp September 17, 2012 at 12:51 AM
They're not free advertising...I wrote them because this is what I believe and I believe others should hear it. Buck up...this is an election year and speech is still free. Stop trying to censure it with you obvious preferences.
Arturistar September 17, 2012 at 04:06 AM
All the things you say about Romney are not true, and you know it. And unfortunately Obama is NOT a great president -- I just wish he were. Like many American's I voted for him. I believed his campaign promises, but he has not delivered. He has divided our country more than any other president in history. He has alienated our foreign allies, and our enemies do not respect us any longer. He has bankrupted our country with two major credit downgrades (the first time in history) and increased our deficit to over $16 TRILLION dollars! He has robbed Medicare of over $7 BILLION Dollars. He has doubled food stamps and welfare and now healthy people don't even have to do any work to get welfare, and now almost half of the people in our country on on the dole -- just so he can get their votes. This is just a tip of the iceberg of things Obama is doing to destroy our country. We cannot take another 4 years of Obama. This is the most important vote in any of our lifetimes! Please do not vote him back in.
Ronald Brough September 17, 2012 at 02:25 PM
Romney coming unpluged? We have a president right now that is not taken responsibility for his policies. Unempolyment is over 8% and the real number is around 18%. There are people that have just dropped out of the workforce. Part time and temporary jods on the rise. The house hold income down 7%. The cost of living is up and the dallor is going down. The world is on fire and Obama likes to lead from behind? What does that mean anyway? He said it when we went into libya and gave the lead to the Frence. The American credit on Friday was dropped again now we are AA-. Obama is going to do one more QE3 ~ print more money to keep rates down. The problem is it kills the economy. That was Obama not Bush or Romney. Obama still can't get is own party to pass one of his Budgets or a budget at all. For two years he had all the power in DC and he could not get a budget passed. If Romney becomes as bad as this President, then I will be one of the first ones yelling. Would you agree that Obama has not done a good job? I know in your heart and mind you know that he has failed as a president and it is OK. You have a right to vote him out, not just for you but of your kids and the next generation.
Keith Best September 17, 2012 at 02:34 PM
Obama has proven to be the empty suit (empty chair) we who did our homework on him back in 2008, knew all along. Bill got landslide right...only it's for Romney/ Ryan....the one's who will save America from the entitlement over-spending.
Rose Way September 17, 2012 at 03:15 PM
CBS said Romney-Ryan cuts to Medicare and Social Security will be in the tens of billions of dollars because he won't tax millionaires. Said that they'll give seniors a voucher to take to the doctor. If you bill is more than the voucher, seniors pay out of pocket. The cost to seniors is much higher than we pay now..
Postman Sharp September 17, 2012 at 03:21 PM
Yes, lyn, and I posted them there. Your comment is an unqualified attempt to censor the comments of others...just like a Republican soldier...first the lies, then the censorship just so you can slip 'ol lying Ryan into office. Tell readers where lying Ryan hid the cuts to veteran benefits. Tell readers why Romney hasn't released his taxes. Tell readers why Ryan hasn't released his famous budget. The answer is always the same, Lyn......they've lied about them from start to finish. But Ryan has gotten caught more than anybody in political history. Hence his name...Lyin' Ryan. Sorry, Lyn, American wants a President with smarts...not EGO...I'll pass on Romney.
Ronald Brough September 17, 2012 at 04:09 PM
Obamacare all ready does that. Medicare has been cutting their services for years. That is way I moved to Cleveland to help my grandmother. That is also way we have Medicare Supplement Plans out there. Doctors are leaving the practice and are cutting back on seeing Medicare Patients. http://www.care2.com/causes/doctors-cutting-medicare-patients-stop-the-trend.html It is time to look at the problem through new eyes. It is not about taxing the rich more, it is about getting a government to work on a true balance budget and cutting spending in the right places. The more you rise taxes the lower the intake to the government is. We need a fair tax plan and a true budget in this country. When we get it then this country will be stronger and better off.
Ronald Brough September 17, 2012 at 04:55 PM
Here you go. http://roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov/plan/default.aspx Why can't the Demoracts put out a budget? For the last 4 years Sharp the Republicans are the only ones that put out a buget. The Demorcat senate is the ones that kills any budget. Ryan's or Obama's. budget.http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/163347-senate-votes-unanimously-against-obama-budget http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203554104577002262150454258.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/2012/08/30/yes-paul-ryan-spoke-the-truth-about-obamas-fiscal-record/ Here are just a few sites to help you. Have a great day.
lyn September 17, 2012 at 05:32 PM
Postman Shark- I'm all for people posting their comments, backed with facts. I''m against you posting your 20+ same comment across the country on all the Patch networks, just like the rest of your Southampton group has been doing. You trash the integrity of what this forum should be. And for your info, I do not like Ryan. And, Romney has released what was necessary and required. Why do you need to see any other years, except to trash the success of a man? If your issue is with the tax law, take that up with Washington - not a taxpayer who is regularly audited by the IRS and following the regs. I am not wealthy, and I hate defending the rich - but I will defend a person who can be successful and do so legally. If one does not like that -take it up with those who make the laws. And, I do think the rich should pay slightly more in the tier on their 1040 - starting with those making over $100,000. To most Americans, even $200,000 is rich. When it comes to the state of the nation - Obama has created a real mess that will take years to undo. And, taken this country in a direction that it has never stood for. But, he will get reelected -too many people are now benefiting by what he has done and people vote for what will be best for them. Why would all those who are getting more money from the government vote against him? But the government should not be existing to redistribute the wealth. Personally, I wish Hillary had been elected.
lyn September 17, 2012 at 05:39 PM
My preference is to have your Southampton group NOT post their comments on this forum and other ones across the country. Otherwise, I welcome a debate and all opinions based on fact - not the like of yours and your group, which is just garbage being spewed.
Dan Marol September 17, 2012 at 06:51 PM
Ronald, you mentiion that the more you raise taxes, the lower the intake to the government is. Well, according to this chart, it shows how the Bush era tax cuts are the main contributor to our debt in the coming years, and this is by the CBO projections. See the chart as Figure 1.: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3036
MZ September 17, 2012 at 07:49 PM
Dan, you site the cbpp, I'll site The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/the-center-on-budget-and-policy-priorities-thinks-were-still-in-the-bush-era/241805/ Exerpt: "The actual level of the debt incurred by tax cuts passed during the Bush era is represented by the size of the wedge in 2010, plus perhaps a modest amount of interest (interest rates right now are low, and over time, inflation and GDP growth should call that debt to fall, not rise, as a percentage of GDP.)" "...what that ever-widening wedge represents is the tax cuts passed in 2010, plus the assumption that the Obama administration makes the tax cuts permanent. I know that many liberal groups still see the pernicious influence of George Bush everywhere . . . but does the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities really think that we are still in the "Bush Era"? Is he the puppetmaster who pulled the string and made Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress dance? And if so, how come we passed a gargantuan new health care entitlement, instead of reforming Social Security?"
Ronald Brough September 17, 2012 at 10:58 PM
Hey Dan. If it was true why has it been over four years and Obama only talks about getting ride of the tax brakes? They stay in place for one simple reason (logic) if the taxes cut were stopped the economy would crash. Obama all ready has way to many problems on his plate that is his own doing he does not need one more. Plus that is way the Dems never repealed it when they had the power of both houses for 4 years (2 years Obama was a Senator). You can show me any chart you would like to, what I see is the tax cuts still stand.
Dan Marol September 17, 2012 at 11:22 PM
MZ- I guess we're not going to change each other's minds, are we? Notice your quote doesn't dispute my point, they only say that the Bush tax cuts are continuing under the Obama Administration. If Obama wins, I can pretty much assure you that part of the tax cuts will certainly expire. I'll stick with my sources from the CBO, and you can continue to site your sources from right wing opinon editorials. Ronald- The tax cuts were extended last year, as you know, for one additional year in a compromise with Republicans. I'm sure you also have to admit that we cannot get out of this mess we're in with only drastic cuts in spending. There has to be a combination of revenue increases and entitlement reforms, similar to the Simpson/Bowles commission proposal. By the way, I will never forget how the Republicans all said that the world was going to come to an end when Clinton raised taxes in the '90's...what followed was years of prosperity.
lyn September 18, 2012 at 12:04 AM
Dan- Again, wondering why you site the links you do. This one is over 2 years old - when the Bush tax cuts were to expire, BUT Obama extended them and added to them. And, don't you realize that because of the extension of these cuts, and the changes that Obama made, now almost 50% of the taxpayers pay no federal income taxes, and many collect that child credit over what taxes they don't owe? Therefore, those tax cuts you do not like, if not there, would increase the low to middle income person $2000-$4000? I assume that is you, and so here you are complaining about those tax cuts - but without them, you would be paying much more. And, if you look at your 2 year old article, it mentions TARP - Bush's program, which by the March 2012 CBO estimates, are only costing the taxpayers now $32billion - and, every year that estimate goes . Also, your 2 year old article mentions the war contributing to where we are. Are you forgetting Obama's role in Afghanistan? Your links are not relevant. Besides, they are usually from a group with political leanings or biases. HOWEVER, I do think the rich should pay slightly more and ALL taxpayers should have to pay something - IMO! We all live in this country, and why not have the rich pay even 1% more than they are in that top tier - starting with those making over $100,000.
lyn September 18, 2012 at 12:09 AM
Ronald- I think one of the main reasons Obama doesn't get rid of the tax cuts is that he knows it would cost him votes! All of us would be paying $2000-$4000 more in taxes and people would be upset at that. He would rather say the words than really follow through, because he knows the repercussions.
lyn September 18, 2012 at 12:22 AM
You did not site as a source the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) -a federal agency. You sited CBPP (The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities) -a think tank, self described as "... working at the federal and state levels on fiscal policy and public programs that affect low- and moderate-income families and individuals."
Ronald Brough September 18, 2012 at 12:33 AM
And Clinton did raise taxes and in 1997/1998 we slipped into a recession. We had the tech bubble pop and remember Clinton also did some stuiped programs that wasted millions ~ IE midnight Basetball. Bush did not cry about the mess he got. I did not like it when the Republicans do the samething. We need to get back to local government control and not a big federial government mandate. If Bush got his way and reformed the Mac's we would have not had a lot of these problems. I like how you also blame the repblican for keeping the taxes breaks going when the Dems could of repealed them before last year. You have to admit that. It is not about taxes it is about the spending.
MZ September 18, 2012 at 01:46 AM
The Atlantic is hardly right wing. Anyway Dan, I like the debate. Your chart did not prove that higher taxes increase tax revenue or that lower taxes decrease revenue. It cheery picked CBO data ( no it was not a CBO report) and didn't show any entitlement spending. It was set up to make people think that all other spending is covered without an increase in debt which is not the case at all. You would also have to assume that every other dollar spent by the federal government was worthwhile and better used by the government than by the people.
Dan Marol September 18, 2012 at 09:36 PM
Lyn, In spite of your claims of independence, you are perhaps one of the most biased on the Patch. Yes, the chart I gave was from two years ago..so what? It still mentions the projected deficits going forward due to the Bush (and extended by Obama) tax cuts. Yes, I know Obama extended all tax cuts, but by ONE year. If he is re-elected, I guarantee you he will not extend them on the upper 2% of income earners. I personally would argue that they should not be extended to people who make over $100K a year, but that's another argument. By the way, it seems as though you have not heard Obama's argument of extending the tax cuts for everyone except those who make over $250K a year, so I don't get your argument that it would cost him votes because he would rasie taxes on everyone $2K-$4K a year. If anything, that is what is going to happen with Mitt Romney's plan. As you know, he is going to get rid of tax loopholes to help pay for the additional tax cuts he is proposing, and the middle class is going to have to pay, although he refuses to specify which loopholes he will close. Sorry my links offend you...that must mean that they hit a nerve.
Joe Giles September 18, 2012 at 10:17 PM
Obama revokes the American Dream. Says it no longer fits his vision for America.
lyn September 18, 2012 at 11:24 PM
Dan- First, I must apologize to you - it was Bill, not you who had previously been listing sources that were biased. His were largely blogs, and I incorrectly remembered it was you -so therefore, I made the comment about the sources you give. HOWEVER, I do believe that if one does list a source, it should be one as free of bias as possible - not one which takes facts and dissects them and spews back what they say was the original info. Also, yes, I am biased - to the truth and not fiction. And, although I lean more toward the Rep. philosophy of doing for yourself, there are many platforms that the Dems hold which I prefer. When Obama first appeared on the scene for all to see, 8 years ago at the convention and then several months before the 2008 primaries, I thought what a great thing it might be if he were to become president some day. But then that January, after learning more about his thoughts on things, I decided to vote for Hillary in the primary. I just did not believe that this man who has always been soooo left would govern in the middle as he campaigned he would - and I was right in that. I wish the Reps had given us a better choice - Huntsman. I do not like Ryan. And as for Romney, this time it is more a vote of who I think is the lesser of 2 evils, or maybe that I am voting against 1 candidate.
lyn September 18, 2012 at 11:25 PM
Also, those Bush tax cuts Obama extended for TWO years and he added to them. Lastly, your links don't really "offend" me, but I was correcting you when you said they were from the CBO, as they were not. Again, I prefer links that contain facts, not bias - from agencies free of agendas.
Dan Marol September 19, 2012 at 01:48 AM
Lyn- Thank you for clarifying as to who you meant to villify for posting numerous sites which you feel are left leaning. Going back to my post, which cited the chart from the cbpp, the information that they used to form the graph were from the non-partisan CBO, which they state. I should have clarified that in my follow up post. Also, I have no idea if the cbpp is partisan or not...I assumed it was not, but I admit that I don't know for sure. LIke I mentioned previously, I actually would have not minded at all if Jon Huntsman would have won the primaries, as I would have seriously considered voting for him. However, as we know, he was not a flame-thrower like the rest of the crowd, and didn't have a chance with the extreme primary voter. I have to chuckle when you say Obama is governing too far to the left, as I feel he is pretty close to the center. Obamacare with no public option (a Republican plan to begin with) just as one example is not an extreme left position. Lastly, you mention that you had to call me out on my link to the cbpp, as it being a biased site. Why is it that I hear crickets from you when the other right-wingers on here post site after site of ridiculous ultra-biased links? Well, at least we both agree that we don't like Ryan, and that we did like Huntsman...that's a start.
Shirley September 21, 2012 at 09:06 PM
If Mitt Romney were black would you be inclined to vote for him? I am not a racist but I believe that Mr. Obama although a nice man, 4 more years of what is happening now, isn't the best solution for the USA.
Arturistar September 21, 2012 at 09:55 PM
Obama's vision seems to be more in line with the socialist communism or Islam. Not what America was founded on. I think he might be happier living somewhere else, except he likes the millionaire lifestyle he has here in America. Has anyone noticed that he is no longer wearing the flag of the US on his lapel, but had his own version of a flag with his campaign logo where the stars should be and a few reddish stripes where the stripes should be. How un-American is that?
Arturistar September 21, 2012 at 10:01 PM
One only has to look at what a mess the world is in now to see that Obama knows nothing about Foreign Affairs or how to manage them. Heck, he isn't even trying, as his priorieties are appearing on Dave Letterman and joking around with other Hollywood stars. He is failing in so many ways and our country is dearly paying the price. It is almost too much to bear to see what he is doing to our great country.
Arturistar September 21, 2012 at 10:08 PM
Romney just released his 2011 Income Taxes as he promised he would. The results show a man of honor and integrity -- see details below. Now it is time for Obama to release all his secret records, like his college records, his "real" birth certificate, and his ties to Chicago thugs. Isn't it strange that people who attended Harvard and took the same courses -- yet not one of them remember Obama. Not one old girl friend or old male friends have surfaced. Very strange to be so secretive but he wants Romney to be unrealistically open. I have always wondered what he is hiding. Don't you? Mitt and Ann Romney donated about $4 million -- about 30 percent of their income -- to charity in 2011, though they only claimed a deduction of about $2.25 million from those donations, according to the campaign. That means the Romneys voluntarily paid a higher tax rate than they were legally required, which the campaign said they did in order to stay consistent with Romney's pledge to never play less than a 13 percent tax rate. "He has been clear that no American need pay more than he or she owes under the law," said spokeswoman Michele Davis. "At the same time, he was in the unique position of having made a commitment to the public that his tax rate would be above 13 percent. He directed his preparers to ensure that he is consistent with that statement."
Gary Ruppert September 23, 2012 at 01:57 AM
The fact is, liberals are always wrong about the facts and logic. Obama has done nothing but take money from the productive and give it to minorites. He is killing all the jobs, we need to reward Job Creators with the Freedom they need to save us, not run them out of the country with runious taxes that stifle inovation and stopping the layabouts from the class warfare of Occupy Thugs, like blow up bridges.
Keith Best September 28, 2012 at 01:24 AM
If you're out of work or know someone who is, you better hope that Romney/ Ryan win. They will bring prosperity back for ALL. Obama is the impediment to the economy growing.


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